Gallagher’s 2026 Outlook Examines Cyber Insurance Market and Emerging Risks
Report discovered via Awesome Annual Security Reports.
Summary
Gallagher’s 2026 outlook forecasts cyber insurance market growth and examines ransomware, supply-chain and privacy claims, AI risks, regulation, and changing underwriting and coverage practices.
Key points
- The report says global cyber insurance premiums could grow from an estimated $16–$20 billion in 2025 to $30–$50 billion by 2030; North America is expected to retain the largest market share.
- Pricing has generally stabilized or softened, though the report notes single-digit increases in healthcare and expects continued industry-specific underwriting scrutiny.
- Ransomware actors increasingly use data theft and publication threats rather than encryption; cited estimates put 2025 ransom payments at 28%–32% of victims, down from 37% in 2024.
- Supply-chain attacks targeting SaaS providers, cloud providers, and code repositories can affect many customers; the report highlights software updates, API integrations, and authentication tokens as areas of concern.
- The report cites supply-chain compromise as the most common cause of reported AI-related security incidents, followed by model inversion, model evasion, prompt injection, and data poisoning.
- Gallagher expects insurers to scrutinize AI risk management, deepfake-enabled social engineering, supply-chain coverage, and non-breach privacy claims, and to refine policy language and exclusions.
- The report says CIRCIA’s 72-hour incident reporting mandate was slated to take effect in May 2026, while state cybersecurity legislation and enforcement continue to develop.
Article Details
- Publisher
- Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
- Report Period
- 2025 developments; outlook for 2026 and beyond
- Scope
- Global and US cyber insurance markets, claims trends, underwriting, regulation, reinsurance, and emerging cyber risks
- Key Statistics
- The 2025 global cyber insurance market was estimated at $16 billion to $20 billion, with forecasts suggesting it could reach $30 billion to $50 billion by 2030.
- The average cost of a US data breach was reported as $10 million in 2025, according to the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security.
- An estimated 28% to 32% of ransomware victims paid in 2025, compared with 37% in 2024.
- Average ransoms paid in 2025 ranged from $1.2 million to $1.8 million, down 10% from 2024.
- At the state level, 200 cybersecurity bills were introduced in 2025.
- Recommendations
- Use vendor risk management and controls to assess vendors’ cybersecurity and the business impact of outages at key third parties.
- Coordinate legal, IT, marketing, and product-development stakeholders to mitigate risks related to website tracking and data collection.
- Establish AI governance, use transparent and explainable models, mitigate data-quality and bias risks, and revise incident response plans for AI incidents.
- Review cyber policy wording for waiting periods, qualifying periods, and periods of interruption that may affect business-interruption recovery.
MITRE ATT&CK
T1195.002 · Compromise Software Supply ChainThe report describes supply-chain attacks involving compromise of software updates at technology and service providers.T1486 · Data Encrypted for ImpactThe report describes ransomware activity involving data encryption, while noting a shift toward exfiltration-based extortion.T1566 · PhishingThe report describes phishing campaigns using AI-generated impersonations of executives or vendors to induce payments or disclosure of sensitive data.
People
Threat Actors
DPRK Remote IT WorkersThe report describes nation-state actors associated with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea who obtained remote IT jobs to infiltrate US companies.InterlockDescribed as a threat actor responsible for high-profile attacks against victims in government and manufacturing.Salt TyphoonDescribed as nation-state actors associated with China who infiltrated backdoors at major US telecommunications companies and internet service providers.Scattered SpiderDescribed as a criminal organization that used ransomware and data-theft extortion against major global organizations.
Countries
Industries
Financial Serviceshealthcare, financial services and consumer-facing retail companies.Governmentagainst victims in the government and manufacturing sectors.Healthcarehealthcare, where rate increases have occurred. While these trendsInsurance2026 Cyber InsuranceManufacturingagainst victims in the government and manufacturing sectors.Retailhealthcare, financial services and consumer-facing retail companies.Technologychanges, advancements in technology and evolving underwritingTelecommunicationsinfiltrated backdoors at major US telecommunications