Alice & Bob Estimates RSA-2048 Could Be Factored in Three Days With Fewer Than 23,000 Qubits
Summary
Alice & Bob estimates its cat-qubit architecture could factor RSA-2048 in three days with fewer than 23,000 physical qubits. The preprint is not peer-reviewed, and real-world performance and scalability remain uncertain.
Key points
- Alice & Bob estimates fewer than 23,000 physical qubits could factor RSA-2048 in three days under a best-case scenario.
- The company says its estimate is about 40 times below a 2025 Google Quantum AI estimate of one million qubits.
- It estimates 30,000 qubits could break elliptic-curve cryptography in about an hour.
- The estimates rely on cat qubits, more efficient error-correcting codes, and a version of Shor's algorithm optimized for cat qubits.
- The preprint still needs peer review, and the cat qubits' real-world performance and scalability are uncertain.
- Experts cited warn that harvest-now, decrypt-later risks make long-lived sensitive data a concern and urge enterprises to begin quantum-safe remediation.
Article Details
- Event Type
- Quantum-computing cryptography threat estimate
- Impact
- Alice & Bob estimated that, in a best-case scenario, its proposed cat-qubit architecture could factor RSA-2048 with fewer than 23,000 physical qubits and break elliptic-curve cryptography with 30,000 qubits in about an hour. These are estimates, not demonstrated attacks; the article notes that the preprint still needs peer review and that real-world performance and scalability remain uncertain. If such capabilities are realized, long-lived confidential data could face harvest-now-decrypt-later risks, and older dormant Bitcoin pay-to-public-key holdings may be exposed.
People
Anders IndsetQuantum Economy podcast host and author who commented on Alice & Bob's estimates, including the need for peer review and uncertainty about real-world performance and scalability.Doug FinkeChief content officer at Global Quantum Intelligence who discussed potential exposure of dormant Bitcoin holdings and the need for enterprises to prepare for quantum risks.Théau PeronninCEO of Alice & Bob; described the company's estimates and its approach to reducing the qubit resources estimated to be needed for factoring RSA-2048.