Alice & Bob Estimates RSA-2048 Could Be Factored in Three Days With 23,000 Qubits
Summary
Alice & Bob estimates its cat-qubit architecture could factor RSA-2048 in three days with fewer than 23,000 physical qubits. The preprint is not yet peer-reviewed, and real-world performance and scaling remain uncertain.
Key points
- Alice & Bob estimates that, in a best-case scenario, fewer than 23,000 physical qubits could factor RSA-2048 in three days.
- The company estimates 30,000 qubits could break elliptic-curve cryptography in about an hour.
- The approach combines cat qubits, error-correcting codes and a version of Shor's algorithm optimized for cat qubits.
- The estimates are from a preprint that still needs peer review; whether the qubits can perform and scale in real-world operations is uncertain.
- Commentators warn that long-lived sensitive data could face harvest-now, decrypt-later risks and urge organizations to begin quantum-safe remediation.
Article Details
- Event Type
- Alice & Bob reported a quantum-computing benchmark estimating the resources needed to break RSA-2048 and elliptic-curve cryptography.
- Impact
- Alice & Bob estimated that, in a best-case scenario, fewer than 23,000 physical cat qubits could factor RSA-2048 in three days, and that 30,000 qubits could break elliptic-curve cryptography in about an hour. These are estimates, not demonstrated attacks; the preprint still needs peer review, and real-world performance and scalability remain uncertain. If achievable, the estimates could heighten long-term risks to data exposed to “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks and to some dormant cryptocurrency holdings.
People
Anders IndsetQuantum Economy podcast host and author who commented on Alice & Bob’s assumptions and the uncertainty around peer review and real-world scalability.Doug FinkeChief content officer at Global Quantum Intelligence; discussed potential quantum risks to dormant Bitcoin holdings and the need for enterprises to prepare.Théau PeronninCEO of Alice & Bob; discussed the company’s estimates and the claimed progress of its cat-qubit approach.
Products
Bitcoinnow. For elliptic-curve cryptography, a different type of encryption that secures blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, the company estimated that 30,000 qubits could break it in about an hour.Ethereumelliptic-curve cryptography, a different type of encryption that secures blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, the company estimated that 30,000 qubits could break it in about an hour.
Industries
CryptocurrencyAnother dormant asset in danger is cryptocurrency such as P2PK Bitcoin coins, said Doug Finke, chief content officer at business intelligence provider Global Quantum Intelligence. These coins don't have a 10-minutequantum computingFrench quantum computing company Alice & Bob said it could break widely used internet encryption in three days and blockchain cryptography in an hour using far fewer quantum resources than previously estimated.