Insikt Group Warns of Potential Russian Hybrid-Warfare Escalation Across Europe
Summary
Recorded Future’s Insikt Group forecasts more coordinated Russian hybrid operations across Europe over the next two years, including cyber disruption, sabotage and influence campaigns. It assesses a direct Russian incursion into NATO as unlikely near term.
Key points
- Insikt Group forecasts that Russian New Generation Warfare could become more frequent, geographically broad and coordinated across Europe over the next two years.
- The report says Russian actors such as BlueDelta and BlueEcho could weaponize existing network access to disrupt edge devices and essential services; this is a forecast, not a reported incident.
- The analysis expects continued or increased sabotage of critical infrastructure, airspace incursions, threats to undersea cables and influence operations.
- The article reports that sabotage operations targeting infrastructure quadrupled between 2023 and 2024.
- Insikt Group assesses a proactive Russian military incursion into NATO territory as unlikely in the immediate term, while saying the risk could grow over a three-to-five-year horizon.
- The report says Moscow would likely seek to keep physical destruction below the threshold that could trigger NATO’s Article 5.
Article Details
- Publisher
- Recorded Future’s Insikt Group
- Report Period
- Forecast horizon: next two years; kinetic-incursion assessment: three to five years
- Scope
- Russian New Generation Warfare against NATO and Europe
- Key Statistics
- Sabotage operations targeting civilian or dual-use infrastructure reportedly quadrupled between 2023 and 2024.
- Suspected NATO airspace violations by drones and jets reportedly reached unprecedented levels between September 2025 and January 2026.
- The report forecasts escalation over the next two years and assesses a proactive kinetic incursion into NATO territory as very unlikely in the immediate term, with its feasibility likely to be evaluated over three to five years.
- Recommendations
- The report warns that Europe should prepare for a significant escalation in coordinated Russian New Generation Warfare.
People
Valery GerasimovRussia’s Chief of the General Staff; the article identifies his views on the increased role of non-military means as influential on New Generation Warfare doctrine.Vladimir PutinThe report assesses that Putin likely views the next two years as a window to test NATO defenses and exploit political tensions, and will likely evaluate the feasibility of a kinetic incursion into NATO territory over the following three to five years.
Threat Actors
BlueDeltaIdentified in the article as a Russian threat actor that has historically focused on gaining access to and collecting intelligence within European networks; that access could be weaponized to disrupt services in a New Generation Warfare campaign.BlueEchoIdentified in the article as a Russian threat actor that has historically focused on gaining access to and collecting intelligence within European networks; that access could be weaponized to disrupt services in a New Generation Warfare campaign.
Countries
FranceFuture operations would likely prioritize countries that are potential targets of military incursions, such as Poland or the Baltic states, as well as their major allies like the UK, Germany, or France.GermanyFuture operations would likely prioritize countries that are potential targets of military incursions, such as Poland or the Baltic states, as well as their major allies like the UK, Germany, or France.PolandFuture operations would likely prioritize countries that are potential targets of military incursions, such as Poland or the Baltic states, as well as their major allies like the UK, Germany, or France.RussiaSince the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO territory has been increasingly aggressive, yet largely opportunistic.UkraineSince the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO territory has been increasingly aggressive, yet largely opportunistic.United KingdomFuture operations would likely prioritize countries that are potential targets of military incursions, such as Poland or the Baltic states, as well as their major allies like the UK, Germany, or France.
Industries
Critical infrastructureSabotage of critical infrastructure, airspace incursions, maritime threats to undersea cables, and influence operations are expected to intensify.TransportationMoving forward, Russia may use drones to hover over civilian transportation hubs or major political summits to project power and stoke public panic.